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EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value

Calculate expected monetary value (EMV) from scenarios, probabilities, and impacts. Compare gains and losses.

Use the EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value

Add scenarios with probability (%) and monetary impact. EMV, expected gain, and expected loss are calculated.

Scenarios

Add rows: name, probability (%), and monetary impact (positive = gain, negative = loss). Probabilities should sum to 100%.

Results

Expected monetary value (EMV)
$15,000
Expected gain
$20,000
Expected loss
-$5,000

Best contributor: Best case ($15,000). Worst: Worst case (-$5,000).

EMV = Σ(probability × impact). Weights each outcome by its probability.

What this metric means

EMV combines outcomes and their likelihood into one number. It helps compare decisions under uncertainty when you can estimate scenarios and probabilities.

How to calculate it

List scenarios with probability (%) and monetary impact ($). EMV = Σ(probability × impact). Expected gain = Σ(max(0, p×impact)); expected loss = Σ(min(0, p×impact)).

How to improve the metric

Improve by shifting probability to better outcomes, increasing positive impacts, or reducing negative ones. Often this means better execution or risk mitigation.

Common mistakes

Probabilities that don't sum to 100%; mixing time periods; or ignoring variance (two options can have the same EMV but very different risk).

How to interpret your result

Use EMV as one input. Positive EMV doesn't guarantee success; check best/worst contributors and whether you can tolerate the downside.

FAQs

What is EMV?▾
EMV is the probability-weighted average of monetary outcomes. Formula: EMV = Σ(probability × impact) for each scenario.
Should probabilities sum to 100%?▾
Yes. If they don't, the result is still mathematically valid but interpret with care. You can normalise or add scenarios to sum to 100%.
What's a good EMV?▾
Positive EMV suggests the decision has positive expected value; negative suggests expected loss. Use with risk tolerance and variance in mind.
How do I use expected gain and loss?▾
Expected gain sums positive (probability × impact); expected loss sums negative. Together they equal EMV and show upside vs downside.

Related tools

Browse all calculators on NetGrow.

NetGrow

EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value

Calculate expected monetary value (EMV) from scenarios, probabilities, and impacts. Compare gains and losses.

Use the EMV Calculator — Expected Monetary Value

Add scenarios with probability (%) and monetary impact. EMV, expected gain, and expected loss are calculated.

Scenarios

Add rows: name, probability (%), and monetary impact (positive = gain, negative = loss). Probabilities should sum to 100%.

Results

Expected monetary value (EMV)
$15,000
Expected gain
$20,000
Expected loss
-$5,000

Best contributor: Best case ($15,000). Worst: Worst case (-$5,000).

EMV = Σ(probability × impact). Weights each outcome by its probability.

What this metric means

EMV combines outcomes and their likelihood into one number. It helps compare decisions under uncertainty when you can estimate scenarios and probabilities.

How to calculate it

List scenarios with probability (%) and monetary impact ($). EMV = Σ(probability × impact). Expected gain = Σ(max(0, p×impact)); expected loss = Σ(min(0, p×impact)).

How to improve the metric

Improve by shifting probability to better outcomes, increasing positive impacts, or reducing negative ones. Often this means better execution or risk mitigation.

Common mistakes

Probabilities that don't sum to 100%; mixing time periods; or ignoring variance (two options can have the same EMV but very different risk).

How to interpret your result

Use EMV as one input. Positive EMV doesn't guarantee success; check best/worst contributors and whether you can tolerate the downside.

FAQs

What is EMV?▾
EMV is the probability-weighted average of monetary outcomes. Formula: EMV = Σ(probability × impact) for each scenario.
Should probabilities sum to 100%?▾
Yes. If they don't, the result is still mathematically valid but interpret with care. You can normalise or add scenarios to sum to 100%.
What's a good EMV?▾
Positive EMV suggests the decision has positive expected value; negative suggests expected loss. Use with risk tolerance and variance in mind.
How do I use expected gain and loss?▾
Expected gain sums positive (probability × impact); expected loss sums negative. Together they equal EMV and show upside vs downside.

Related tools

Browse all calculators on NetGrow.